Half way through this term, problems remain for Trudeau’s opposition

Half way through this term, problems remain for Trudeau’s opposition

BY TOM PARKIN, POSTMEDIA NETWORK SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 10, 2017 03:00 PM EDT

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Conservative Party of Canada leader Andrew Scheer speaks at his shadow cabinet meeting in Winnipeg, Wednesday, September 6, 2017. THE CANADIAN PRESS/John Woods

About two years before the next election, political parties are all polling at about the same place they were at last election day.

That’s good news for Trudeau who, in an election today, would probably regain a slim majority.

For the Conservatives, it’s not. Harper’s record on the economy, law and order, veterans and the environment became millstones around the Conservatives’ necks during the last campaign. Their last refuge was right-wing identity politics—the ‘barbaric practices’ snitch line and a culture war about niqab-wearing women.

Under the moderate interim leadership of Rona Ambrose, it seemed the Conservatives had realized their error. But their bizarre leadership race and the election of social conservative Andrew Scheer proved otherwise.

Three months after his election, Scheer has failed to present much threat to the Trudeau Liberals. Perhaps because he arrived loaded with some heavy political baggage.

Scheer’s promise to give tax benefit to private schooling and home-schooling may have attracted support from the religious right. And his promise to cut funding to universities who choose not to give platforms to gibberish causes may have appealed to the alt-right. But both ideas are likely to reinforce negative perceptions among mainstream Canadians.

And, more troubling, many Canadians still cannot understand why it was only after a racist march and the killing of Heather Heyer in Charlottesville, Virginia, that Scheer decided to distance himself from Rebel Media.

In urban Canada, Scheer’s social conservatism will continue to be dead weight. In secular Quebec, it means he can count on nothing. The resignation of Lac-Saint-Jean MP Denis Lebel, a former Harper Minister, has forced a by-election for a seat that hasn’t been Liberal since 1980. Liberals may be bluffing, but are sending signals they think they can win. We’ll see.

For the New Democrats, the polling steady-state is neutral news—for now.

The party has held its own despite operating with a lameduck leader for almost 18 months. That’s the good news. But the real test comes in the months after the next NDP leader is chosen. The first round of balloting starts on September 18. Results come on October 1.

To be a threat in 2019, the next NDP leader needs to speak to voters in urban Canada and progressive Quebec where Liberals are incumbent and Conservatives are stalled. And to compete in those places, the party will need to work harder to raise money—election finance reports show NDP wallets have been closed since the last election.

To re-open wallets the next NDP leader will need to show some momentum. If polls show an uptick in NDP support by year’s end, it’s game on. If not, it might be game over—at least in this round.

Finally, the Bloc Quebecois. The return of Gilles Duceppe, a xenophobic-tinged campaign and the collapse of the NDP vote helped the BQ add six seats and finish with 10 MPs. In March, Martine Ouellet, formerly a PQ MNA, was acclaimed BQ leader. In June she faced a crisis when seven BQ MPs publicly condemned her chief of staff.

While the BQ seems lost and without purpose now, should the NDP fail to provide a strong case to Quebecers, the BQ could again become the vehicle for French-speaking Quebecers to express displeasure with Ottawa.

For now, the Liberals have little threat from the right. At year’s end we’ll know if they face a challenge from the left.

http://www.ottawasun.com/2017/09/08/half-way-through-this-term-problems-remain-for-trudeaus-opposition